Little boxes on the hillside,

Little boxes made of ticky tacky,

Little boxes on the hillside,

Little boxes all the same.

There’s a green one and a pink one

And a blue one and a yellow one,

And they’re all made out of ticky tacky

And they all look just the same.

- Malvina Reynolds

The latest Case-Shiller report was out yesterday and you can view or download it below.  For those in a hurry here is a headline for you…

San Diego Real Estate Down 5.3% From Last Year!

In America we seem to be addicted to statistics and percentages.  Headlines proclaim “prices crash” when the adjustment is .2%. Many don’t really want the facts, just a quick soundbite which they consider factual rather than sensationalism.

Looking at the report closer we can see that the San Diego Market went down .2% from the pervious report, while the national average was -4.1%.

At San Diego LIfestyle we prefer to look at the facts from multiple data sources rather than a headline.  We drill down to street level for our Clients to find out the real story.

General market conditions can be found with national reports, slightly better with country reports, and the best with communities.  To find out the real story in a particular market you’ll need to analyze and find the best comparables.

I call this what your neighbors have been up to – recent sales will establish future value trends.

It is important to remember that while real estate can be considered a commodity, each property is unique.  The price of a can of chocolate can go up and down and the statistics really mean something.

Even in communities of little boxes that all look the same, some will be more desirable, and some less depending on location, closeness to shopping, or located on a 12 lane freeway.  Yet they are all thrown into the mix and averaged out with a catchy headline to sum it all up.

Photo courtesy of Flickr

There were 1,767 single family homes sold in July 2011 with a median price of $375,000.  That is down -3.840% from the prior year.  Average days on the market was 75.

Rancho Santa Fe (92067) had a total of 11 sales or 113 year to date.  Average days on the market was 159 days.  Median price was $1,900,000 or $2,100,000 YTD.  Last year at this time 92067 had sold 17 with a median price of $2,100,000.

Compare that to Downtown San Diego (92101) which had 75 attached homes sold or 565 YTD.  Time on the market was 104 days with a median sales price of $360,000.

Coronado had a total of 15 sales or 89 sales YTD.  Average days on market for July was 136 with a median price of $1,300,000.

To view or download the full report click on the image below:

The California Association of REALTORS® has a custom Google Map with median prices and quarter to quarter comparisons.  Just click on the County that you are interested in for more details.

View County Sales & Price in a larger map

Courtesy of California Association of REALTORS®.

Source: Sandicor | Click for Larger

The blue line on the chart above represents single family homes and the red attached homes.  Sales volume has been fairly stable since March of this year.

Source: Sandicor | Click for Larger

Median sales price has also been relatively stable since March with some downtrend according to the above graph.

There were 1,805 single family homes that sold in San Diego County at a median sales price of $377,500 with an average time on the market of 77 days.  This was a decrease of -3.795% from the previous month and a -4.598% from the prior year.

You can view or download the full report broken down into zip codes by clicking the image below:

According to the Wall Street Journals analysts review of a chart prepared by Yale Economist Robert Shiller

Home prices are almost back to their long-term trend. Adjusting for inflation, U.S. home prices were 40% lower in the first quarter than at their peak five years earlier. That left them just 7.5% above their average level from the mid 1940s through the 1990s—a period when home prices tended to gain at the same pace as the overall inflation rate.

Source: S&P | Indices

Okay, so the data is from February, March, and April of 2011 and it’s on a national level, but everyone is glued to the latest Case-Shiller data. While real estate needs to be looked at on a more local level here are some of the highlights from the Case-Shiller report.

Here is what is outlined on the Economist’ Outlook:

• Case Shiller data for April is out today. The data shows that house prices in the areas covered by the 20-city index improved by 0.7 percent for the month—the first monthly improvement since July 2010. Prices fell 4 percent for the year by this measure.
• 13 of 20 cities saw improvement in the monthly data for April. Only Washington DC saw an improvement in prices in the year according to Case Shiller. By comparison, 6 of the 9 US census divisions had home price increases in April according to FHFA data.
• Case Shiller is the last to release April data, which is actually an average of information from February, March, and April. Still, Case Shiller’s index falls right in the middle of other data series in April. Series like NAR’s median home price, released last week, show even better performance in May.
• For a fuller comparison of the information in various house price series, check out NAR’s House Price Monitor which has been updated to reflect this new information.
• The near one percent gain in a single month is quite large (translating into 8 percent gain on an annualized basis) and may just be the beginning of a true home price recovery for the country.

Today I thought it would be interesting to focus on the luxury real estate markets of San Diego which include Rancho Santa Fe, Del Mar, La Jolla, and Coronado.

First let’s take a look at median prices for active homes on the market.  These numbers are from June 17th provided by Altos Market Research, include only single family homes, and are average over 90 days.  If you want to follow statistics for these areas updated weekly the links are below:

1. Rancho Santa Fe – Active Market Statistics - Foreclosure Statistics.
2. Del Mar - Active Market Statistics – Foreclosure Statistics.
3. La Jolla – Active Market Statistics – Foreclosure Statistics.
4. Coronado – Active Market Statistics – Foreclosure Statistics.

If you would like these reports delivered directly to your e-mail you may sign up here.

As you can see Rancho Santa Fe (92067 & 92091) had been hard hit with median prices due to distress and foreclosure sales.  This market is actually pending upwards right now on active listing prices.  Del Mar on the other hand is trending downward, La Jolla like Rancho Santa Fe upward, and Coronado is mostly flat.

A good sign of a healthy market is inventory.  Too many choices with few buyers will tend to drive prices downward.  We are currently in what would be considered high buying season.

So all markets are trending upward in Rancho Santa Fe, Del Mar, La Jolla, and Coronado.

Another good bench mark for the health of a market is how long a property is on the market before it goes sale pending, otherwise known as Days On Market (DOM).

My friends over at Wells Fargo just mailed out the regional chartbook for Quarter 2 published on June 24, 2011.  You can view and print the whole report below if you are having trouble sleeping.

A couple of things that caught my eye regarding the report were California was about in the middle of the graph (above) of negative equity mortgages.  Folks in New Hampshire fare the best at 18.7% while Nevada had a whopping 62.6% negative mortgages.  California came in at 30.9%.

Here are some comments regarding California’s housing market in the report.

California’s housing market is still very weak. Nearly 31 percent of homeowners with a mortgage are in a negative equity position. Moreover, a large portion of existing home sales coming to the market in California are in the form of distressed transactions. Short sales have also accounted for many initiated sales across the state. Short sales can play an important role in California’s economic recovery by accelerating the pace of home sales and reducing the inventory of bank-owned homes on the market. However, according to a recent survey of 2,150 California realtors who have assisted clients with a short sale, only three out of five transactions are actually closing. The biggest hurdles to closing short sale transactions in California seems to be the large amount paperwork involved as well as the fact that many homeowners in California have second mortgages, which greatly complicates the short-sale process.

Considering all the California homes with 2nd and 3rd mortgages with homeowners using them as ATM’s, the number is not that surprising.

Other favorable information in the report was California employment growth was finally starting to turn around.  Payrolls are up 1.2 percent on a year-over-year bais, with information services leading job growth.  Additionally California has benefitted immensely from the rebound in international trade.

The report finishes with the California economy seeing a gradual pickup in growth toward the end of the year.  The states GDP rose 1.8 percent last year and show grow at a slightly faster pace this year as the demand for technology goods remain strong.  Job gains are also expected to become more widespread across industries in the second half of the year.

As I have written previously the smart money is in the lower priced real estate market including both cash buyers and investors.  Many of these investors are buying with a long term plan to hold while some are still flipping with the margins very thin right now.  Luxury markets are much softer and will continue and only the best priced and most desirable properties are selling.  As we slowly climb out of the downward cycle combined with extremely low interest rates many people will be very happy 20 years plus down the road.  At leaset those that don’t use their home as an cash machine.

Read or download the full report below: