You would think after all we have been through in the last few years in real estate that we would have learned some lessons. Yet my twitter feed and conversations with agents throughout San Diego are filled with optimism that our markets are on the uptrend, and folks should buy now before it is too late. Does this sound familiar?
Don’t get me wrong, I believe in real estate and its long term power of making you money with the added bonus of having a particular lifestyle. I don’t believe that real estate is for everyone or that many people make the best purchase that they could. I have often said that 70% of a given market includes a bunch of overpriced junk – it is up to the consumer with the help of a experianced REALTOR® to wade through those and find the hidden gems.
Caution ahead would be my advice.
Yes, I have Clients that I have represented in today’s market making very sound real estate purchases, but it is hard work. Unfortunately I am also seeing buyer’s desperate for the “First Time Home Buyer” tax incentive and lack of inventory buying some pretty bad homes at top of market prices – combined with no repairs and hidden defects.
In the last 5 months or so the Case-Shiller home index has been on an increase. I have never been a big fan of this index for several reasons, one is the data lags behind what is happening today. The Case-Shiller reports data on a 90 day-rolling average basis, so the strength we are seeing this fall was market activity from Spring. Contracts that went pending in April, May, and June, and then closed in June, July and August. This important component of the index is often forgotten when quoted by those shouting “Buy Now, before it is too late!” Where have we heard that mantra before?
I prefer to also look at Market Data from a “real time” basis using Altos Market Research. Combined with recently sold comparables it gives my Clients a much better idea where the market is going in the near future. Check out the latest 10 City Market Graph from Altos to see what I mean. You can read the full article here.
Along with Altos Research I believe the data is stacking up to against the continuation of home price appreciation into fall. With another 3 weeks before the Case-Shiller index are released for August it will be interesting to see if we are right. Market predictions as I have said time and again are hard – but the data points to the likely hood in the short term.
If you want to check out San Diego market date head on over to my Flash Charts for weekly updated statistics. You can also have these reports delivered to your e-mail by signing up here.
Coronado | Del Mar | Downtown | La Jolla | Mission Hills | Point Loma | Rancho Santa Fe
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